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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."